tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, DL 2695 at 12:45, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 2695 Delta Flight history → MSP 12:45 MSY 15:25 13% 3% 0.9% 85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New Orleans on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → MSP 05:50 → DEN 06:55WN 1525 1h 05m Denver DEN 08:00 → MSY 11:45WN 1642 5h 55m 100% 92%
SouthwestDetails → MSP 05:00 → MDW 06:30WN 2520 2h 20m Chicago MDW 08:50 → MSY 11:05WN 2834 6h 05m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → MSP 05:20 → ATL 08:54DL 1062 2h 11m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → MSY 11:37DL 2542 6h 17m 99% 89%
UnitedDetails → MSP 05:45 → DEN 06:53UA 2041 2h 57m Denver DEN 09:50 → MSY 13:39UA 2273 7h 54m 99% 87%
AmericanDetails → MSP 06:10 → ORD 08:05AA 4444 · flown by Republic 1h 25m Chicago ORD 09:30 → MSY 12:05AA 4748 · flown by Republic 5h 55m 97% 86%
UnitedDetails → MSP 06:00 → EWR 09:40UA 1246 2h 53m Newark EWR 12:33 → MSY 14:44UA 2468 8h 44m 98% 85%
UnitedDetails → MSP 09:47 → ORD 11:29UA 1929 2h 36m Chicago ORD 14:05 → MSY 16:49UA 3658 · flown by Republic 7h 02m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → MSP 07:00 → ATL 10:32DL 1039 3h 13m Atlanta ATL 13:45 → MSY 14:17DL 3157 7h 17m 99% 83%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → MSP 19:15 → MDW 20:50WN 4115 50m Chicago MDW 21:40 → MSY 23:55WN 2836 4h 40m 72% 48%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON