Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, DL 3791 at 18:10, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 3791 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MSP 18:10	OKC 20:15	16%	7%	0.6%	78%
DL 5142 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	MSP 09:05	OKC 11:16	25%	9%	0.0%	75%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Oklahoma City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	MSP 05:50 → DEN 06:55WN 1525	1h 15m Denver	DEN 08:10 → OKC 10:50WN 3010	5h 00m	100%	93%
Delta Details →	MSP 08:10 → SLC 09:59DL 2628	3h 41m Salt Lake City	SLC 13:40 → OKC 17:03DL 3882 · flown by SkyWest	8h 53m	100%	90%
Southwest Details →	MSP 05:00 → MDW 06:30WN 2520	3h 40m Chicago	MDW 10:10 → OKC 12:15WN 4114	7h 15m	100%	90%
United Details →	MSP 05:45 → DEN 06:53UA 2041	1h 07m Denver	DEN 08:00 → OKC 10:49UA 6029 · flown by SkyWest	5h 04m	97%	88%
Delta Details →	MSP 05:20 → ATL 08:54DL 1062	2h 11m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → OKC 12:12DL 2020	6h 52m	99%	87%
American Details →	MSP 06:02 → DFW 08:40AA 2150	2h 09m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:49 → OKC 11:56AA 3731 · flown by Envoy	5h 54m	97%	86%
United Details →	MSP 12:05 → IAH 15:00UA 1795	1h 35m Houston	IAH 16:35 → OKC 18:15UA 6334 · flown by Mesa	6h 10m	97%	85%
United Details →	MSP 06:00 → ORD 07:44UA 307	1h 19m Chicago	ORD 09:03 → OKC 11:40UA 5614 · flown by SkyWest	5h 40m	99%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON