Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 7–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 3831 MSP 08:50 → OMA 10:12 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest DL 4024 MSP 18:25 → OMA 19:47 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3831 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MSP 08:50	OMA 10:12	7%	3%	0.5%	89%
DL 3838 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MSP 10:39	OMA 11:57	10%	5%	0.5%	72%
DL 4014 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MSP 21:30	OMA 22:48	11%	5%	0.6%	67%
DL 3948 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MSP 15:29	OMA 16:49	13%	6%	0.5%	76%
DL 4024 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MSP 18:25	OMA 19:47	14%	6%	0.6%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON