Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 19 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 4444 at 06:10 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–25%.

Safest bet that day AA 4444 MSP 06:10 → ORD 08:05 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest DL 1563 MSP 20:15 → ORD 21:52 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4444 American flown by Republic Flight history →	MSP 06:10	ORD 08:05	3%	3%	1.0%	93%
UA 307 United Flight history →	MSP 06:00	ORD 07:44	4%	2%	0.6%	92%
UA 567 United Flight history →	MSP 07:34	ORD 09:18	8%	3%	0.6%	72%
UA 1929 United Flight history →	MSP 09:47	ORD 11:29	8%	3%	0.6%	85%
AA 4162 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MSP 10:31	ORD 12:16	9%	4%	0.8%	89%
DL 1544 Delta Flight history →	MSP 07:00	ORD 08:30	9%	4%	0.7%	83%
DL 1567 Delta Flight history →	MSP 10:00	ORD 11:32	12%	4%	0.7%	72%
UA 576 United Flight history →	MSP 11:32	ORD 13:15	12%	4%	0.6%	73%
AA 4727 American flown by Republic Flight history →	MSP 16:03	ORD 17:59	13%	6%	1.1%	75%
DL 1533 Delta Flight history →	MSP 13:25	ORD 15:05	15%	6%	0.7%	71%
AA 4465 American flown by Republic Flight history →	MSP 18:02	ORD 20:10	15%	6%	1.1%	80%
AA 3719 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MSP 14:02	ORD 15:43	15%	5%	0.8%	79%
UA 5570 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MSP 13:08	ORD 14:53	18%	7%	0.7%	67%
UA 658 United Flight history →	MSP 17:13	ORD 19:00	19%	7%	0.6%	57%
UA 5390 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MSP 18:41	ORD 20:30	21%	10%	0.8%	56%
UA 1531 United Flight history →	MSP 15:16	ORD 16:58	22%	6%	0.6%	55%
DL 2130 Delta Flight history →	MSP 17:45	ORD 19:30	22%	7%	0.7%	61%
DL 1306 Delta Flight history →	MSP 15:20	ORD 16:59	22%	6%	0.7%	57%
DL 1563 Delta Flight history →	MSP 20:15	ORD 21:52	25%	7%	0.7%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON