Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 5518 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	MSP 19:55	ORF 23:47	36%	11%	1.2%	64%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Norfolk on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Norfolk is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	MSP 05:00 → MDW 06:30WN 2520	1h 10m Chicago	MDW 07:40 → ORF 10:45WN 1661	4h 45m	100%	93%
Southwest Details →	MSP 05:25 → BWI 08:50WN 3658	1h 50m Baltimore	BWI 10:40 → ORF 11:40WN 1070	5h 15m	100%	90%
Southwest Details →	MSP 07:05 → BNA 09:10WN 1528	2h 50m Nashville	BNA 12:00 → ORF 14:50WN 4688	6h 45m	100%	87%
United Details →	MSP 05:45 → DEN 06:53UA 2041	2h 47m Denver	DEN 09:40 → ORF 15:18UA 2011	8h 33m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	MSP 09:00 → DTW 11:42DL 1433	2h 48m Detroit	DTW 14:30 → ORF 16:21DL 1621	6h 21m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	MSP 05:20 → ATL 08:54DL 1062	2h 11m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → ORF 12:45DL 2925	6h 25m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	MSP 16:16 → DTW 18:59DL 1476	2h 41m Detroit	DTW 21:40 → ORF 23:32DL 412	6h 16m	99%	84%
United Details →	MSP 17:05 → IAD 20:43UA 3678 · flown by Republic	1h 52m Dulles	IAD 22:35 → ORF 23:44UA 2677	5h 39m	97%	82%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	MSP 17:18 → ATL 21:05DL 1036	49m Atlanta	ATL 21:54 → ORF 23:44DL 2338	5h 26m	75%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON