Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 5–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 2415 MSP 09:05 → PDX 10:41 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest DL 2391 MSP 21:38 → PDX 23:18 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2415 Delta Flight history →	MSP 09:05	PDX 10:41	5%	2%	0.6%	89%
DL 2167 Delta Flight history →	MSP 11:00	PDX 12:38	6%	2%	0.6%	88%
DL 2008 Delta Flight history →	MSP 15:58	PDX 17:35	12%	3%	0.6%	81%
AS 1434 Alaska Flight history →	MSP 18:17	PDX 20:07	13%	3%	0.7%	82%
DL 2151 Delta Flight history →	MSP 18:34	PDX 20:15	13%	3%	0.6%	79%
DL 2391 Delta Flight history →	MSP 21:38	PDX 23:18	14%	3%	0.7%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON