Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 2688 at 07:10 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–21%.

Safest bet that day DL 2688 MSP 07:10 → PHL 10:44 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 2157 MSP 16:14 → PHL 19:58 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2688 Delta Flight history →	MSP 07:10	PHL 10:44	5%	2%	0.7%	91%
DL 2679 Delta Flight history →	MSP 11:09	PHL 14:43	7%	3%	0.6%	85%
AA 5488 American flown by PSA Flight history →	MSP 05:45	PHL 09:27	8%	3%	1.3%	88%
DL 2594 Delta Flight history →	MSP 14:25	PHL 18:04	12%	4%	0.7%	76%
DL 2703 Delta Flight history →	MSP 20:25	PHL 23:56	15%	5%	0.7%	77%
AA 5658 American flown by PSA Flight history →	MSP 13:08	PHL 16:50	17%	8%	1.4%	75%
AA 2157 American Flight history →	MSP 16:14	PHL 19:58	21%	8%	0.6%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON