Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, DL 1224 at 10:10, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 1224 Delta Flight history →	MSP 10:10	PVD 13:53	9%	2%	0.6%	89%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Providence on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Providence is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	MSP 05:00 → MDW 06:30WN 2520	1h 10m Chicago	MDW 07:40 → PVD 10:55WN 784	4h 55m	100%	93%
Southwest Details →	MSP 05:25 → BWI 08:50WN 3658	1h 55m Baltimore	BWI 10:45 → PVD 12:05WN 4628	5h 40m	100%	92%
American Details →	MSP 06:10 → ORD 08:05AA 4444 · flown by Republic	1h 25m Chicago	ORD 09:30 → PVD 13:01AA 3453 · flown by Envoy	5h 51m	97%	88%
Delta Details →	MSP 05:20 → ATL 08:54DL 1062	1h 06m Atlanta	ATL 10:00 → PVD 12:29DL 2147	6h 09m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	MSP 06:04 → DTW 08:47DL 1461	1h 18m Detroit	DTW 10:05 → PVD 12:03DL 3961 · flown by SkyWest	4h 59m	98%	87%
United Details →	MSP 06:00 → ORD 07:44UA 307	3h 01m Chicago	ORD 10:45 → PVD 14:25UA 4703 · flown by SkyWest	7h 25m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	MSP 16:16 → DTW 18:59DL 1476	2h 31m Detroit	DTW 21:30 → PVD 23:36DL 3795 · flown by SkyWest	6h 20m	99%	86%
American Details →	MSP 06:19 → CLT 10:00AA 894	3h 44m Charlotte	CLT 13:44 → PVD 15:48AA 2318	8h 29m	99%	84%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	MSP 15:16 → ORD 16:58UA 1531	52m Chicago	ORD 17:50 → PVD 21:33UA 5442 · flown by SkyWest	5h 17m	71%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON