Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, DL 1766 at 06:55, with a 7% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 1766 Delta Flight history →	MSP 06:55	PWM 10:42	7%	3%	0.6%	93%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	MSP 12:17 → IAD 15:50UA 3695 · flown by Republic	1h 40m Dulles	IAD 17:30 → PWM 19:27UA 3651 · flown by Republic	6h 10m	100%	89%
Southwest Details →	MSP 05:25 → BWI 08:50WN 3658	2h 00m Baltimore	BWI 10:50 → PWM 12:20WN 1065	5h 55m	100%	88%
United Details →	MSP 06:00 → EWR 09:40UA 1246	2h 19m Newark	EWR 11:59 → PWM 13:25UA 3685 · flown by Republic	6h 25m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	MSP 06:04 → DTW 08:47DL 1461	1h 13m Detroit	DTW 10:00 → PWM 11:55DL 426	4h 51m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	MSP 09:00 → DTW 11:42DL 1433	2h 23m Detroit	DTW 14:05 → PWM 16:01DL 1821	6h 01m	98%	85%
United Details →	MSP 05:45 → DEN 06:53UA 2041	3h 01m Denver	DEN 09:54 → PWM 15:49UA 1598	9h 04m	100%	84%
Southwest Details →	MSP 07:05 → BNA 09:10WN 1528	2h 05m Nashville	BNA 11:15 → PWM 14:40WN 651	6h 35m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	MSP 05:20 → ATL 08:54DL 1062	1h 26m Atlanta	ATL 10:20 → PWM 13:00DL 2479	6h 40m	98%	83%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	MSP 18:10 → JFK 22:09DL 5244 · flown by Endeavor	50m New York	JFK 22:59 → PWM 00:52 +1DL 5411 · flown by Endeavor	5h 42m	48%	31%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON