Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 2783 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–21%.

Safest bet that day DL 2783 MSP 07:00 → RDU 10:31 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest DL 2932 MSP 20:25 → RDU 23:59 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2783 Delta Flight history →	MSP 07:00	RDU 10:31	8%	2%	0.7%	90%
DL 2521 Delta Flight history →	MSP 10:21	RDU 13:51	11%	3%	0.6%	86%
DL 2699 Delta Flight history →	MSP 14:20	RDU 17:51	18%	4%	0.6%	79%
DL 2932 Delta Flight history →	MSP 20:25	RDU 23:59	21%	5%	0.6%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON