tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 5530 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record MSP 20:16 RIC 23:58 30% 11% 0.7% 70%
DL 5063 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record MSP 10:00 RIC 13:35 31% 25% 0.0% 69%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Richmond on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Richmond is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MSP 06:04 → DTW 08:47DL 1461 1h 22m Detroit DTW 10:09 → RIC 11:47DL 3166 4h 43m 98% 90%
SouthwestDetails → MSP 05:25 → BWI 08:50WN 3658 1h 10m Baltimore BWI 10:00 → RIC 10:55WN 705 4h 30m 100% 90%
UnitedDetails → MSP 06:00 → ORD 07:44UA 307 2h 51m Chicago ORD 10:35 → RIC 13:57UA 3704 · flown by Republic 6h 57m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → MSP 05:20 → ATL 08:54DL 1062 1h 21m Atlanta ATL 10:15 → RIC 11:56DL 2650 5h 36m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → MSP 07:00 → ATL 10:32DL 1039 1h 58m Atlanta ATL 12:30 → RIC 14:05DL 1437 6h 05m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → MSP 05:45 → DEN 06:53UA 2041 2h 57m Denver DEN 09:50 → RIC 15:12UA 2030 8h 27m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → MSP 08:26 → ATL 11:54DL 1052 2h 52m Atlanta ATL 14:46 → RIC 16:23DL 1214 6h 57m 100% 85%
AmericanDetails → MSP 05:45 → PHL 09:27AA 5488 · flown by PSA 3h 45m Philadelphia PHL 13:12 → RIC 14:35AA 5843 · flown by Piedmont 7h 50m 97% 85%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON