Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Denver, leaving 05:50, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Reno on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 2560 Delta Flight history →	MSP 18:20	RNO 19:58	19%	6%	0.7%	77%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Reno on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Reno is 2 h behind Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MSP 12:29 → SLC 14:19DL 2651	1h 56m Salt Lake City	SLC 16:15 → RNO 16:52DL 3732 · flown by SkyWest	6h 23m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	MSP 08:10 → SLC 09:59DL 2628	1h 41m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:40 → RNO 12:09DL 1595	5h 59m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	MSP 18:13 → SLC 20:07DL 2607	3h 13m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:20 → RNO 23:47DL 1607	7h 34m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	MSP 07:06 → LAX 09:00DL 2110	3h 58m Los Angeles	LAX 12:58 → RNO 14:25DL 3902 · flown by SkyWest	9h 19m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	MSP 11:30 → LAX 13:23DL 2119	3h 27m Los Angeles	LAX 16:50 → RNO 18:21DL 4126 · flown by SkyWest	8h 51m	99%	83%
Southwest Details →	MSP 05:50 → DEN 06:55WN 1525	50m Denver	DEN 07:45 → RNO 09:05WN 2689	5h 15m	89%	83%
Alaska Details →	MSP 06:03 → SEA 07:58AS 387	1h 12m Seattle	SEA 09:10 → RNO 11:03AS 3079 · flown by SkyWest	7h 00m	96%	82%
United Details →	MSP 11:34 → DEN 12:45UA 2232	3h 25m Denver	DEN 16:10 → RNO 17:36UA 1604	8h 02m	98%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON