Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 14–24% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 2400 MSP 09:05 → RSW 13:27 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest DL 402 MSP 12:45 → RSW 17:06 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2400 Delta Flight history →	MSP 09:05	RSW 13:27	14%	3%	11.8%	86%
DL 2268 Delta Flight history →	MSP 19:29	RSW 23:52	20%	7%	7.5%	74%
DL 402 Delta Flight history →	MSP 12:45	RSW 17:06	24%	6%	10.0%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON