Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 2121 at 08:51 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–26%.

Safest bet that day DL 2121 MSP 08:51 → SAN 10:38 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest DL 2145 MSP 18:50 → SAN 20:36 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2121 Delta Flight history →	MSP 08:51	SAN 10:38	11%	3%	0.6%	82%
DL 2125 Delta Flight history →	MSP 11:38	SAN 13:24	14%	3%	0.6%	81%
DL 2146 Delta Flight history →	MSP 21:47	SAN 23:30	20%	5%	0.7%	78%
DL 2145 Delta Flight history →	MSP 18:50	SAN 20:36	26%	6%	0.7%	73%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	MSP 05:45 → DEN 06:53UA 2041	50m Denver	DEN 07:43 → SAN 09:05UA 2309	5h 20m	94%	80%
American Details →	MSP 14:47 → PHX 16:03AA 1750	1h 03m Phoenix	PHX 17:06 → SAN 18:18AA 2466	5h 31m	82%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON