tailodds FORECAST
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Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, DL 2574 at 12:45, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 2574 Delta Flight history → MSP 12:45 SAV 16:23 11% 3% 0.7% 85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Savannah on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Savannah is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MSP 05:20 → ATL 08:54DL 1062 3h 13m Atlanta ATL 12:07 → SAV 13:12DL 940 6h 52m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → MSP 07:00 → ATL 10:32DL 1039 3h 00m Atlanta ATL 13:32 → SAV 14:38DL 1067 6h 38m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → MSP 06:00 → EWR 09:40UA 1246 2h 19m Newark EWR 11:59 → SAV 14:14UA 570 7h 14m 98% 87%
AmericanDetails → MSP 06:19 → CLT 10:00AA 894 1h 10m Charlotte CLT 11:10 → SAV 12:35AA 5890 · flown by Piedmont 5h 16m 95% 87%
UnitedDetails → MSP 06:00 → ORD 07:44UA 307 2h 58m Chicago ORD 10:42 → SAV 14:16UA 2631 7h 16m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → MSP 08:26 → ATL 11:54DL 1052 3h 09m Atlanta ATL 15:03 → SAV 16:14DL 3014 6h 48m 100% 86%
UnitedDetails → MSP 05:45 → DEN 06:53UA 2041 2h 49m Denver DEN 09:42 → SAV 15:00UA 1049 8h 15m 99% 86%
SouthwestDetails → MSP 07:05 → BNA 09:10WN 1528 1h 00m Nashville BNA 10:10 → SAV 12:35WN 667 4h 30m 95% 84%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON