Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 1418 at 06:55 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–27%.

Safest bet that day DL 1418 MSP 06:55 → SEA 08:45 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest AS 532 MSP 19:59 → SEA 21:57 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1418 Delta Flight history →	MSP 06:55	SEA 08:45	6%	2%	0.6%	96%
AS 387 Alaska Flight history →	MSP 06:03	SEA 07:58	7%	2%	0.7%	85%
DL 868 Delta Flight history →	MSP 09:05	SEA 10:59	9%	3%	0.6%	88%
DL 889 Delta Flight history →	MSP 11:10	SEA 13:00	10%	2%	0.6%	87%
AS 555 Alaska Flight history →	MSP 14:56	SEA 16:50	17%	3%	0.7%	78%
DL 877 Delta Flight history →	MSP 15:15	SEA 17:00	17%	4%	0.6%	75%
DL 505 Delta Flight history →	MSP 22:08	SEA 23:58	19%	5%	0.6%	83%
AS 510 Alaska Flight history →	MSP 16:57	SEA 18:52	19%	5%	0.7%	81%
DL 881 Delta Flight history →	MSP 18:55	SEA 20:48	22%	4%	0.6%	75%
AS 532 Alaska Flight history →	MSP 19:59	SEA 21:57	27%	6%	0.7%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON