Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 1808 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–27%.

Safest bet that day UA 1808 MSP 07:00 → SFO 09:12 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest DL 2809 MSP 18:50 → SFO 20:57 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1808 United Flight history →	MSP 07:00	SFO 09:12	10%	3%	0.6%	97%
DL 2074 Delta Flight history →	MSP 11:00	SFO 13:09	15%	4%	0.6%	70%
UA 1367 United Flight history →	MSP 15:20	SFO 17:32	16%	6%	0.6%	57%
DL 756 Delta Flight history →	MSP 15:07	SFO 17:12	19%	6%	0.6%	74%
DL 2078 Delta Flight history →	MSP 09:24	SFO 11:32	19%	5%	0.6%	59%
DL 2089 Delta Flight history →	MSP 21:40	SFO 23:46	20%	6%	0.6%	61%
DL 2809 Delta Flight history →	MSP 18:50	SFO 20:57	27%	8%	0.6%	65%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	MSP 09:05 → DEN 10:21UA 1891	1h 00m Denver	DEN 11:21 → SFO 13:04UA 1561	5h 59m	93%	73%
United Details →	MSP 05:45 → DEN 06:53UA 2041	47m Denver	DEN 07:40 → SFO 09:18UA 2391	5h 33m	88%	71%
United Details →	MSP 13:36 → DEN 14:48UA 1305	59m Denver	DEN 15:47 → SFO 17:30UA 2633	5h 54m	87%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON