Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: United via Denver, leaving 11:34, is the safest bet: 66% chance of reaching Sacramento on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 72% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 1701 Delta Flight history →	MSP 10:24	SMF 12:09	12%	3%	0.6%	94%
DL 574 Delta Flight history →	MSP 18:45	SMF 20:35	21%	6%	0.6%	79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 2 h behind Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	MSP 05:50 → DEN 06:55WN 1525	1h 00m Denver	DEN 07:55 → SMF 09:30WN 1738	5h 40m	100%	93%
United Details →	MSP 05:45 → DEN 06:53UA 2041	1h 07m Denver	DEN 08:00 → SMF 09:35UA 2149	5h 50m	97%	91%
United Details →	MSP 06:00 → ORD 07:44UA 307	1h 20m Chicago	ORD 09:04 → SMF 11:51UA 2145	7h 51m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	MSP 18:13 → SLC 20:07DL 2607	2h 57m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:04 → SMF 23:44DL 1582	7h 31m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	MSP 08:10 → SLC 09:59DL 2628	1h 36m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:35 → SMF 12:16DL 1423	6h 06m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	MSP 06:55 → SEA 08:45DL 1418	1h 25m Seattle	SEA 10:10 → SMF 12:17DL 4125 · flown by SkyWest	7h 22m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	MSP 11:30 → LAX 13:23DL 2119	3h 15m Los Angeles	LAX 16:38 → SMF 18:11DL 3712 · flown by SkyWest	8h 41m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	MSP 12:29 → SLC 14:19DL 2651	3h 16m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:35 → SMF 18:16DL 2585	7h 47m	100%	83%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	MSP 20:20 → SLC 22:13DL 1051	51m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:04 → SMF 23:44DL 1582	5h 24m	72%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON