tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Denver, leaving 05:50, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Santa Ana on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 2081 Delta Flight history → MSP 11:00 SNA 12:54 15% 4% 0.6% 73%
DL 2107 Delta Flight history → MSP 18:28 SNA 20:20 22% 5% 0.6% 68%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Ana on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 2 h behind Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → MSP 05:50 → DEN 06:55WN 1525 55m Denver DEN 07:50 → SNA 09:15WN 1745 5h 25m 95% 87%
UnitedDetails → MSP 09:05 → DEN 10:21UA 1891 3h 04m Denver DEN 13:25 → SNA 14:57UA 1707 7h 52m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → MSP 06:00 → ORD 07:44UA 307 56m Chicago ORD 08:40 → SNA 11:21UA 1304 7h 21m 94% 82%
UnitedDetails → MSP 07:35 → IAH 10:30UA 2460 2h 00m Houston IAH 12:30 → SNA 14:03UA 2780 8h 28m 98% 81%
UnitedDetails → MSP 05:45 → DEN 06:53UA 2041 47m Denver DEN 07:40 → SNA 09:07UA 2666 5h 22m 88% 81%
AmericanDetails → MSP 06:02 → DFW 08:40AA 2150 3h 43m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:23 → SNA 13:31AA 2684 9h 29m 99% 80%
UnitedDetails → MSP 11:34 → DEN 12:45UA 2232 3h 15m Denver DEN 16:00 → SNA 17:30UA 2657 7h 56m 98% 80%
DeltaDetails → MSP 05:20 → ATL 08:54DL 1062 2h 06m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → SNA 12:31DL 329 9h 11m 99% 79%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON