Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 2973 at 07:45 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–24%.

Safest bet that day WN 2973 MSP 07:45 → STL 09:15 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest WN 2974 MSP 17:40 → STL 19:10 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 54% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 2973 Southwest Flight history →	MSP 07:45	STL 09:15	7%	2%	0.5%	92%
DL 3188 Delta Flight history →	MSP 08:55	STL 10:28	7%	3%	0.6%	85%
DL 3185 Delta Flight history →	MSP 15:15	STL 16:46	17%	5%	0.6%	78%
DL 4167 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MSP 13:36	STL 15:13	17%	5%	0.5%	71%
DL 1609 Delta Flight history →	MSP 21:50	STL 23:22	19%	5%	0.6%	78%
WN 2974 Southwest Flight history →	MSP 17:40	STL 19:10	24%	6%	0.6%	54%
DL 5286 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	MSP 07:00	STL 08:42	28%	14%	0.0%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON