Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 2301 at 07:15 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–22%.

Safest bet that day DL 2301 MSP 07:15 → TPA 11:26 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest DL 2385 MSP 18:15 → TPA 22:26 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2301 Delta Flight history →	MSP 07:15	TPA 11:26	9%	3%	17.2%	87%
DL 2696 Delta Flight history →	MSP 10:05	TPA 14:13	11%	3%	17.2%	83%
DL 2264 Delta Flight history →	MSP 13:19	TPA 17:32	14%	5%	17.2%	82%
DL 2385 Delta Flight history →	MSP 18:15	TPA 22:26	22%	6%	15.5%	75%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	MSP 07:45 → STL 09:15WN 2973	50m St Louis	STL 10:05 → TPA 13:25WN 3986	4h 40m	92%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON