Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, DL 3995 at 10:24, with a 12% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 3995 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MSP 10:24	TVC 12:54	12%	4%	0.6%	81%
DL 4915 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	MSP 15:25	TVC 17:55	50%	26%	0.0%	50%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Traverse City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Traverse City is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	MSP 06:10 → ORD 08:05AA 4444 · flown by Republic	1h 30m Chicago	ORD 09:35 → TVC 11:57AA 4190 · flown by Envoy	4h 47m	97%	82%
United Details →	MSP 06:00 → EWR 09:40UA 1246	56m Newark	EWR 10:36 → TVC 13:00UA 3588 · flown by Republic	6h 00m	94%	82%
American Details →	MSP 16:03 → ORD 17:59AA 4727 · flown by Republic	3h 41m Chicago	ORD 21:40 → TVC 00:01 +1AA 3910 · flown by Envoy	6h 58m	100%	81%
United Details →	MSP 05:45 → DEN 06:53UA 2041	2h 52m Denver	DEN 09:45 → TVC 14:26UA 1887	7h 41m	99%	80%
United Details →	MSP 06:00 → ORD 07:44UA 307	3h 01m Chicago	ORD 10:45 → TVC 13:13UA 2807	6h 13m	100%	79%
American Details →	MSP 05:45 → PHL 09:27AA 5488 · flown by PSA	1h 03m Philadelphia	PHL 10:30 → TVC 12:47AA 5480 · flown by PSA	6h 02m	93%	78%
Delta Details →	MSP 06:04 → DTW 08:47DL 1461	3h 28m Detroit	DTW 12:15 → TVC 13:27DL 3976 · flown by SkyWest	6h 23m	100%	78%
Delta Details →	MSP 16:16 → DTW 18:59DL 1476	4h 00m Detroit	DTW 22:59 → TVC 00:08 +1DL 2424	6h 52m	100%	78%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	MSP 18:41 → ORD 20:30UA 5390 · flown by SkyWest	55m Chicago	ORD 21:25 → TVC 23:54UA 3572 · flown by Republic	4h 13m	74%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON