Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 5527 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	MSP 19:45	TYS 23:01	28%	13%	1.1%	72%
DL 5335 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	MSP 13:28	TYS 16:45	29%	15%	0.8%	71%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Knoxville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Knoxville is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MSP 05:20 → ATL 08:54DL 1062	1h 16m Atlanta	ATL 10:10 → TYS 11:10DL 1743	4h 50m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	MSP 07:00 → ATL 10:32DL 1039	3h 20m Atlanta	ATL 13:52 → TYS 14:48DL 1148	6h 48m	99%	84%
American Details →	MSP 06:10 → ORD 08:05AA 4444 · flown by Republic	1h 35m Chicago	ORD 09:40 → TYS 12:30AA 5014 · flown by SkyWest	5h 20m	98%	84%
United Details →	MSP 06:00 → ORD 07:44UA 307	2h 46m Chicago	ORD 10:30 → TYS 13:19UA 6037 · flown by SkyWest	6h 19m	100%	84%
American Details →	MSP 10:31 → ORD 12:16AA 4162 · flown by Envoy	2h 57m Chicago	ORD 15:13 → TYS 18:02AA 3783 · flown by Envoy	6h 31m	99%	83%
Southwest Details →	MSP 07:05 → BNA 09:10WN 1528	1h 00m Nashville	BNA 10:10 → TYS 12:00WN 4206	3h 55m	95%	81%
Delta Details →	MSP 10:32 → ATL 14:04DL 1046	3h 41m Atlanta	ATL 17:45 → TYS 18:44DL 3042	7h 12m	99%	79%
American Details →	MSP 14:02 → ORD 15:43AA 3719 · flown by Envoy	3h 26m Chicago	ORD 19:09 → TYS 21:58AA 5001 · flown by SkyWest	6h 56m	100%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON