Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 9–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 3536 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MSP 09:10	XNA 11:08	9%	4%	0.6%	92%
DL 4012 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MSP 14:34	XNA 16:27	14%	5%	0.6%	75%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fayetteville/Springdale/ on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MSP 12:29 → SLC 14:19DL 2651	3h 01m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:20 → XNA 21:03DL 3620 · flown by SkyWest	8h 34m	100%	87%
American Details →	MSP 06:02 → DFW 08:40AA 2150	3h 56m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:36 → XNA 13:57AA 3847 · flown by Envoy	7h 55m	99%	86%
American Details →	MSP 05:00 → DFW 07:34AA 1251	1h 30m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:04 → XNA 10:24AA 3838 · flown by Envoy	5h 24m	95%	86%
United Details →	MSP 05:45 → DEN 06:53UA 2041	2h 57m Denver	DEN 09:50 → XNA 12:47UA 5267 · flown by SkyWest	7h 02m	99%	85%
American Details →	MSP 06:10 → ORD 08:05AA 4444 · flown by Republic	3h 40m Chicago	ORD 11:45 → XNA 13:41AA 3848 · flown by Envoy	7h 31m	98%	85%
American Details →	MSP 08:01 → DFW 10:36AA 1395	3h 30m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:06 → XNA 15:27AA 3840 · flown by Envoy	7h 26m	98%	84%
American Details →	MSP 06:19 → CLT 10:00AA 894	1h 44m Charlotte	CLT 11:44 → XNA 13:12AA 5444 · flown by PSA	6h 53m	97%	84%
American Details →	MSP 14:02 → ORD 15:43AA 3719 · flown by Envoy	3h 17m Chicago	ORD 19:00 → XNA 21:00AA 4105 · flown by Envoy	6h 58m	100%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON