Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 1547 at 05:20 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–42%.

Safest bet that day DL 1547 MSY 05:20 → ATL 07:51 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest F9 2972 MSY 17:12 → ATL 20:08 · 42% chance 15+ min late · usually 41% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1547 Delta Flight history →	MSY 05:20	ATL 07:51	6%	2%	0.9%	92%
DL 1534 Delta Flight history →	MSY 06:20	ATL 08:57	6%	3%	0.9%	92%
DL 3128 Delta Flight history →	MSY 09:13	ATL 11:43	8%	3%	0.7%	93%
DL 2522 Delta Flight history →	MSY 07:28	ATL 10:00	8%	3%	1.0%	90%
DL 1424 Delta Flight history →	MSY 10:34	ATL 13:05	9%	3%	0.7%	92%
DL 2542 Delta Flight history →	MSY 12:42	ATL 15:16	14%	3%	0.7%	86%
DL 3157 Delta Flight history →	MSY 15:22	ATL 18:01	18%	4%	0.8%	76%
DL 3132 Delta Flight history →	MSY 19:12	ATL 21:54	18%	4%	1.0%	80%
DL 924 Delta Flight history →	MSY 17:02	ATL 19:45	21%	5%	1.0%	60%
WN 4949 Southwest Flight history →	MSY 15:20	ATL 17:50	34%	7%	0.8%	32%
F9 2972 Frontier Flight history →	MSY 17:12	ATL 20:08	42%	16%	1.5%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON