Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 2976 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–29%.

Safest bet that day WN 2976 MSY 06:00 → AUS 07:30 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest WN 2979 MSY 16:00 → AUS 17:30 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 32% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2976 Southwest Flight history →	MSY 06:00	AUS 07:30	3%	1%	1.0%	92%
WN 2977 Southwest Flight history →	MSY 08:10	AUS 09:35	6%	2%	1.2%	79%
DL 4016 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MSY 15:51	AUS 17:38	17%	7%	0.9%	78%
WN 311 Southwest Flight history →	MSY 13:45	AUS 15:15	20%	5%	0.7%	36%
WN 4902 Southwest Flight history →	MSY 22:40	AUS 00:10	26%	8%	4.6%	56%
WN 2979 Southwest Flight history →	MSY 16:00	AUS 17:30	29%	7%	0.9%	32%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON