Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 1266 at 06:53 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–26%.

Safest bet that day AA 1266 MSY 06:53 → CLT 10:00 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest AA 2203 MSY 18:26 → CLT 21:33 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 44% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1266 American Flight history →	MSY 06:53	CLT 10:00	8%	3%	1.2%	95%
AA 2200 American Flight history →	MSY 09:27	CLT 12:28	12%	3%	0.8%	87%
AA 2170 American Flight history →	MSY 13:50	CLT 16:59	18%	5%	0.8%	53%
AA 2174 American Flight history →	MSY 16:17	CLT 19:26	23%	6%	1.1%	68%
AA 2203 American Flight history →	MSY 18:26	CLT 21:33	26%	6%	1.5%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON