Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 3664 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 36–37%.

Safest bet that day WN 3664 MSY 06:30 → DAL 07:55 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest WN 4502 MSY 21:30 → DAL 22:55 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 45% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3664 Southwest Flight history →	MSY 06:30	DAL 07:55	4%	1%	1.3%	88%
WN 2964 Southwest Flight history →	MSY 05:20	DAL 06:45	4%	1%	1.3%	82%
WN 1346 Southwest Flight history →	MSY 11:05	DAL 12:30	17%	3%	0.8%	72%
WN 4419 Southwest Flight history →	MSY 14:30	DAL 16:00	29%	6%	0.8%	68%
WN 4677 Southwest Flight history →	MSY 18:30	DAL 20:05	36%	10%	1.6%	38%
WN 4502 Southwest Flight history →	MSY 21:30	DAL 22:55	37%	12%	4.6%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON