Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 222 at 07:30 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–36%.

Safest bet that day WN 222 MSY 07:30 → DCA 11:00 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest WN 2990 MSY 17:20 → DCA 20:55 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 27% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 222 Southwest Flight history →	MSY 07:30	DCA 11:00	9%	3%	1.0%	92%
AA 5313 American flown by PSA Flight history →	MSY 10:57	DCA 15:02	15%	7%	1.8%	69%
AA 967 American Flight history →	MSY 14:07	DCA 17:46	23%	7%	1.2%	61%
AA 5670 American flown by PSA Flight history →	MSY 16:35	DCA 20:22	25%	12%	3.0%	49%
WN 2990 Southwest Flight history →	MSY 17:20	DCA 20:55	36%	12%	1.1%	27%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON