Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 2991 at 05:10 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–37%.

Safest bet that day WN 2991 MSY 05:10 → DEN 06:55 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest WN 1743 MSY 17:20 → DEN 19:25 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 30% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2991 Southwest Flight history →	MSY 05:10	DEN 06:55	5%	1%	0.9%	97%
UA 1376 United Flight history →	MSY 08:04	DEN 10:05	8%	3%	0.9%	86%
WN 2992 Southwest Flight history →	MSY 10:45	DEN 12:25	15%	2%	0.6%	70%
F9 4561 Frontier Flight history →	MSY 21:48	DEN 23:53	19%	7%	5.5%	74%
UA 2325 United Flight history →	MSY 14:35	DEN 16:34	20%	5%	0.6%	78%
WN 1743 Southwest Flight history →	MSY 17:20	DEN 19:25	37%	6%	1.1%	30%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON