Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 468 at 05:50 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–29%.

Safest bet that day AA 468 MSY 05:50 → DFW 07:40 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest F9 4993 MSY 14:14 → DFW 16:01 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 468 American Flight history →	MSY 05:50	DFW 07:40	8%	3%	1.4%	87%
MQ 3591 Envoy	MSY 11:12	DFW 12:59	12%	3%	1.2%	no record
AA 1390 American Flight history →	MSY 09:30	DFW 11:15	14%	5%	1.0%	80%
AA 1470 American Flight history →	MSY 07:42	DFW 09:35	15%	4%	1.2%	77%
AA 3721 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MSY 14:43	DFW 16:30	19%	4%	1.3%	64%
AA 2885 American Flight history →	MSY 12:22	DFW 14:10	20%	6%	1.1%	65%
AA 2158 American Flight history →	MSY 19:59	DFW 21:47	25%	9%	2.6%	41%
AA 2194 American Flight history →	MSY 18:01	DFW 19:55	29%	10%	3.3%	40%
F9 4993 Frontier Flight history →	MSY 14:14	DFW 16:01	30%	12%	1.2%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON