tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: DL 2790 at 11:19 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 21%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 2790 Delta Flight history → MSY 11:19 DTW 14:48 10% 3% 0.8% 85%
DL 894 Delta Flight history → MSY 17:05 DTW 20:42 21% 5% 1.4% 72%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Detroit on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Detroit is 1 h ahead of New Orleans). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → MSY 05:15 → IAH 06:34UA 2744 3h 11m Houston IAH 09:45 → DTW 13:42UA 4064 · flown by Mesa 7h 27m 99% 88%
UnitedDetails → MSY 09:53 → IAH 11:12UA 2105 2h 46m Houston IAH 13:58 → DTW 17:59UA 6131 · flown by Mesa 7h 06m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → MSY 05:20 → ATL 07:51DL 1547 3h 09m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → DTW 12:56DL 1240 6h 36m 100% 85%
UnitedDetails → MSY 08:00 → IAD 11:33UA 1392 1h 22m Dulles IAD 12:55 → DTW 14:34UA 3495 · flown by Republic 5h 34m 96% 85%
DeltaDetails → MSY 07:28 → ATL 10:00DL 2522 3h 47m Atlanta ATL 13:47 → DTW 15:42DL 1031 7h 14m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → MSY 10:10 → EWR 14:13UA 2172 2h 07m Newark EWR 16:20 → DTW 18:19UA 3596 · flown by Republic 7h 09m 96% 79%
UnitedDetails → MSY 06:30 → ORD 09:12UA 2420 1h 38m Chicago ORD 10:50 → DTW 13:27UA 5756 · flown by SkyWest 5h 57m 98% 79%
DeltaDetails → MSY 10:20 → JFK 14:31DL 1322 1h 59m New York JFK 16:30 → DTW 18:57DL 2443 7h 37m 95% 78%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → MSY 17:35 → IAH 19:02UA 2341 48m Houston IAH 19:50 → DTW 23:44UA 2237 5h 09m 72% 58%
JetBlueDetails → MSY 14:59 → BOS 19:27B6 400 1h 06m Boston BOS 20:33 → DTW 22:45B6 1337 6h 46m 65% 36%
UnitedDetails → MSY 17:35 → ORD 20:28UA 3597 · flown by Republic 52m Chicago ORD 21:20 → DTW 23:54UA 5255 · flown by SkyWest 5h 19m 42% 30%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON