Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 1437 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–15%.

Safest bet that day UA 1437 MSY 06:00 → EWR 10:04 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest UA 2235 MSY 19:39 → EWR 23:44 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1437 United Flight history →	MSY 06:00	EWR 10:04	4%	2%	0.9%	95%
UA 2172 United Flight history →	MSY 10:10	EWR 14:13	11%	4%	0.9%	92%
UA 2235 United Flight history →	MSY 19:39	EWR 23:44	15%	7%	1.7%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON