Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4547 at 05:30 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–33%.

Safest bet that day WN 4547 MSY 05:30 → HOU 06:45 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest WN 1810 MSY 18:40 → HOU 19:55 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 42% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4547 Southwest Flight history →	MSY 05:30	HOU 06:45	5%	1%	2.4%	89%
WN 2995 Southwest Flight history →	MSY 07:25	HOU 08:40	8%	2%	2.8%	86%
WN 934 Southwest Flight history →	MSY 09:20	HOU 10:35	10%	2%	2.3%	88%
WN 1642 Southwest Flight history →	MSY 12:20	HOU 13:35	21%	4%	2.2%	75%
WN 2998 Southwest Flight history →	MSY 16:00	HOU 17:15	28%	7%	3.5%	56%
WN 4662 Southwest Flight history →	MSY 20:35	HOU 21:50	30%	9%	5.4%	71%
WN 1810 Southwest Flight history →	MSY 18:40	HOU 19:55	33%	8%	2.2%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON