tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 6–8% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 1392 United Flight history → MSY 08:00 IAD 11:33 6% 3% 0.9% 93%
UA 2497 United Flight history → MSY 12:17 IAD 15:50 8% 4% 0.6% 92%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 1 h ahead of New Orleans). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MSY 05:20 → ATL 07:51DL 1547 1h 59m Atlanta ATL 09:50 → IAD 11:37DL 1444 5h 17m 98% 87%
UnitedDetails → MSY 06:30 → ORD 09:12UA 2420 1h 55m Chicago ORD 11:07 → IAD 14:12UA 1869 6h 42m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → MSY 06:20 → ATL 08:57DL 1534 3h 20m Atlanta ATL 12:17 → IAD 14:01DL 2135 6h 41m 100% 87%
UnitedDetails → MSY 07:00 → IAH 08:19UA 2124 3h 54m Houston IAH 12:13 → IAD 16:30UA 2366 8h 30m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → MSY 05:15 → IAH 06:34UA 2744 46m Houston IAH 07:20 → IAD 11:28UA 1549 5h 13m 91% 82%
DeltaDetails → MSY 09:13 → ATL 11:43DL 3128 3h 16m Atlanta ATL 14:59 → IAD 16:46DL 1695 6h 33m 98% 81%
UnitedDetails → MSY 12:07 → IAH 13:26UA 2253 3h 09m Houston IAH 16:35 → IAD 20:46UA 2388 7h 39m 99% 81%
AmericanDetails → MSY 06:53 → CLT 10:00AA 1266 1h 05m Charlotte CLT 11:05 → IAD 12:38AA 5220 · flown by PSA 4h 45m 92% 80%
Tight connection: often missed
FrontierDetails → MSY 17:12 → ATL 20:08F9 2972 55m Atlanta ATL 21:03 → IAD 22:55F9 3692 4h 43m 56% 39%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON