Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 2744 at 05:15 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 7–17%.

Safest bet that day UA 2744 MSY 05:15 → IAH 06:34 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest UA 313 MSY 15:43 → IAH 17:02 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 2744 United Flight history →	MSY 05:15	IAH 06:34	5%	2%	1.4%	95%
UA 2105 United Flight history →	MSY 09:53	IAH 11:12	7%	3%	0.9%	90%
UA 2124 United Flight history →	MSY 07:00	IAH 08:19	13%	3%	1.4%	73%
UA 2253 United Flight history →	MSY 12:07	IAH 13:26	13%	4%	0.9%	80%
UA 2341 United Flight history →	MSY 17:35	IAH 19:02	15%	7%	1.1%	72%
UA 2296 United Flight history →	MSY 14:21	IAH 15:40	16%	4%	0.9%	85%
UA 313 United Flight history →	MSY 15:43	IAH 17:02	17%	6%	1.0%	72%
UA 6273 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	MSY 19:13	IAH 20:40	12%	6%	0.0%	88%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON