Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 9–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 1322 MSY 10:20 → JFK 14:31 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest B6 176 MSY 12:19 → JFK 16:30 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1322 Delta Flight history →	MSY 10:20	JFK 14:31	9%	3%	1.3%	88%
DL 1394 Delta Flight history →	MSY 19:50	JFK 23:59	19%	7%	2.7%	59%
B6 176 JetBlue Flight history →	MSY 12:19	JFK 16:30	19%	8%	1.1%	82%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	MSY 06:20 → ATL 08:57DL 1534	47m Atlanta	ATL 09:44 → JFK 12:00DL 1034	4h 40m	82%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON