Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 2192 at 06:20 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 34–40%.

Safest bet that day WN 2192 MSY 06:20 → LAS 07:55 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest WN 3003 MSY 19:55 → LAS 21:30 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 36% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2192 Southwest Flight history →	MSY 06:20	LAS 07:55	5%	1%	0.9%	92%
WN 4701 Southwest Flight history →	MSY 14:00	LAS 15:35	34%	7%	0.7%	72%
WN 3003 Southwest Flight history →	MSY 19:55	LAS 21:30	40%	9%	1.4%	36%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	MSY 06:30 → DAL 07:55WN 3664	50m Dallas	DAL 08:45 → LAS 09:35WN 695	5h 05m	94%	84%
United Details →	MSY 05:15 → IAH 06:34UA 2744	46m Houston	IAH 07:20 → LAS 08:35UA 1264	5h 20m	91%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON