Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 2085 at 08:03 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20–35%.

Safest bet that day DL 2085 MSY 08:03 → LAX 10:00 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest WN 3004 MSY 15:30 → LAX 17:30 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 36% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2085 Delta Flight history →	MSY 08:03	LAX 10:00	9%	3%	0.9%	94%
DL 1102 Delta Flight history →	MSY 14:55	LAX 16:50	20%	4%	0.7%	69%
DL 2096 Delta Flight history →	MSY 17:20	LAX 19:18	24%	4%	0.9%	69%
WN 3004 Southwest Flight history →	MSY 15:30	LAX 17:30	35%	7%	0.8%	36%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	MSY 05:15 → IAH 06:34UA 2744	46m Houston	IAH 07:20 → LAX 08:57UA 2600	5h 42m	91%	79%
United Details →	MSY 14:21 → IAH 15:40UA 2296	51m Houston	IAH 16:31 → LAX 18:08UA 1743	5h 47m	78%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON