Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 2461 at 11:49 is the safest bet, 18% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–42%.

Safest bet that day DL 2461 MSY 11:49 → LGA 15:59 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time Riskiest AA 2165 MSY 17:56 → LGA 21:58 · 42% chance 15+ min late · usually 43% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2461 Delta Flight history →	MSY 11:49	LGA 15:59	18%	4%	1.2%	73%
WN 3008 Southwest Flight history →	MSY 09:50	LGA 13:45	23%	3%	0.8%	76%
DL 2445 Delta Flight history →	MSY 18:59	LGA 23:13	25%	9%	2.6%	62%
AA 2165 American Flight history →	MSY 17:56	LGA 21:58	42%	15%	1.8%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON