tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 3009 at 12:55, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 3009 Southwest Flight history → MSY 12:55 MCI 14:55 15% 4% 0.6% 72%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kansas City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → MSY 05:20 → DAL 06:45WN 2964 1h 50m Dallas DAL 08:35 → MCI 10:10WN 1343 4h 50m 99% 89%
SouthwestDetails → MSY 07:45 → BNA 09:20WN 2981 3h 10m Nashville BNA 12:30 → MCI 14:10WN 5063 6h 25m 100% 89%
SouthwestDetails → MSY 05:10 → DEN 06:55WN 2991 1h 45m Denver DEN 08:40 → MCI 11:15WN 1584 6h 05m 98% 89%
UnitedDetails → MSY 05:15 → IAH 06:34UA 2744 1h 26m Houston IAH 08:00 → MCI 10:03UA 2266 4h 48m 97% 87%
UnitedDetails → MSY 08:00 → IAD 11:33UA 1392 1h 22m Dulles IAD 12:55 → MCI 14:45UA 3528 · flown by Republic 6h 45m 96% 86%
DeltaDetails → MSY 05:20 → ATL 07:51DL 1547 2h 14m Atlanta ATL 10:05 → MCI 11:16DL 2908 5h 56m 99% 86%
AmericanDetails → MSY 05:50 → DFW 07:40AA 468 2h 20m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:00 → MCI 11:44AA 3661 · flown by Envoy 5h 54m 97% 86%
SouthwestDetails → MSY 05:40 → MDW 08:00WN 498 2h 20m Chicago MDW 10:20 → MCI 11:45WN 2529 6h 05m 98% 86%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → MSY 15:00 → BNA 16:35WN 2983 55m Nashville BNA 17:30 → MCI 19:10WN 562 4h 10m 71% 56%
SouthwestDetails → MSY 17:15 → MDW 19:30WN 2875 1h 00m Chicago MDW 20:30 → MCI 22:05WN 1482 4h 50m 71% 54%
UnitedDetails → MSY 17:35 → ORD 20:28UA 3597 · flown by Republic 57m Chicago ORD 21:25 → MCI 23:17UA 4723 · flown by SkyWest 5h 42m 61% 47%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON