Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4663 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–31%.

Safest bet that day WN 4663 MSY 05:00 → MCO 07:50 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest WN 4311 MSY 18:40 → MCO 21:30 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 55% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4663 Southwest Flight history →	MSY 05:00	MCO 07:50	3%	1%	10.9%	91%
WN 3011 Southwest Flight history →	MSY 07:05	MCO 09:55	5%	2%	12.1%	95%
WN 3242 Southwest Flight history →	MSY 09:00	MCO 11:50	9%	3%	15.6%	60%
F9 1432 Frontier Flight history →	MSY 12:36	MCO 15:37	19%	11%	18.1%	81%
WN 2051 Southwest Flight history →	MSY 12:35	MCO 15:30	19%	7%	17.3%	68%
F9 3554 Frontier Flight history →	MSY 16:35	MCO 19:36	25%	13%	18.8%	67%
WN 4311 Southwest Flight history →	MSY 18:40	MCO 21:30	31%	10%	17.3%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON