Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 498 at 05:40 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18–29%.

Safest bet that day WN 498 MSY 05:40 → MDW 08:00 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest WN 2875 MSY 17:15 → MDW 19:30 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 17% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 498 Southwest Flight history →	MSY 05:40	MDW 08:00	4%	1%	1.1%	92%
WN 4664 Southwest Flight history →	MSY 11:45	MDW 14:00	18%	3%	0.7%	72%
WN 2875 Southwest Flight history →	MSY 17:15	MDW 19:30	29%	8%	1.2%	17%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON