Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 386 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 17–39%.

Safest bet that day AA 386 MSY 06:05 → MIA 09:11 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AA 2201 MSY 18:57 → MIA 21:59 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 52% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 386 American Flight history →	MSY 06:05	MIA 09:11	11%	4%	1.8%	88%
AA 1591 American Flight history →	MSY 08:00	MIA 11:04	17%	5%	1.9%	82%
AA 2168 American Flight history →	MSY 09:58	MIA 12:58	23%	7%	3.8%	83%
AA 2201 American Flight history →	MSY 18:57	MIA 21:59	39%	11%	2.9%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON