tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, DL 2695 at 16:30, with a 17% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 2695 Delta Flight history → MSY 16:30 MSP 19:15 17% 5% 1.1% 84%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → MSY 05:40 → MDW 08:00WN 498 2h 15m Chicago MDW 10:15 → MSP 11:45WN 2869 6h 05m 98% 88%
UnitedDetails → MSY 05:15 → IAH 06:34UA 2744 1h 26m Houston IAH 08:00 → MSP 10:53UA 2469 5h 38m 97% 88%
DeltaDetails → MSY 05:20 → ATL 07:51DL 1547 2h 04m Atlanta ATL 09:55 → MSP 11:31DL 2090 6h 11m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → MSY 08:00 → IAD 11:33UA 1392 1h 47m Dulles IAD 13:20 → MSP 15:11UA 3576 · flown by Republic 7h 11m 97% 87%
SouthwestDetails → MSY 05:10 → DEN 06:55WN 2991 3h 15m Denver DEN 10:10 → MSP 13:10WN 3973 8h 00m 100% 86%
AmericanDetails → MSY 07:43 → ORD 10:30AA 3722 · flown by Envoy 3h 10m Chicago ORD 13:40 → MSP 15:29AA 4727 · flown by Republic 7h 46m 100% 85%
UnitedDetails → MSY 08:04 → DEN 10:05UA 1376 3h 37m Denver DEN 13:42 → MSP 16:46UA 732 8h 42m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → MSY 06:20 → ATL 08:57DL 1534 3h 20m Atlanta ATL 12:17 → MSP 13:50DL 2901 7h 30m 100% 85%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON