Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 2420 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–35%.

Safest bet that day UA 2420 MSY 06:30 → ORD 09:12 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest AA 2198 MSY 17:27 → ORD 20:29 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 43% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2420 United Flight history →	MSY 06:30	ORD 09:12	9%	3%	0.9%	86%
AA 3722 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MSY 07:43	ORD 10:30	10%	4%	1.4%	94%
AA 4748 American flown by Republic Flight history →	MSY 12:35	ORD 15:21	11%	4%	1.3%	88%
UA 2179 United Flight history →	MSY 14:01	ORD 16:46	19%	6%	0.7%	76%
UA 3597 United flown by Republic Flight history →	MSY 17:35	ORD 20:28	24%	6%	2.1%	90%worse than usual
AA 2198 American Flight history →	MSY 17:27	ORD 20:29	35%	10%	2.0%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON