Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 5626 at 06:10 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–25%.

Safest bet that day AA 5626 MSY 06:10 → PHL 10:06 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest F9 1274 MSY 20:14 → PHL 00:10 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5626 American flown by PSA Flight history →	MSY 06:10	PHL 10:06	9%	4%	1.5%	86%
AA 2208 American Flight history →	MSY 11:35	PHL 15:33	16%	5%	0.9%	75%
AA 2061 American Flight history →	MSY 16:42	PHL 20:40	23%	8%	1.2%	58%
F9 1274 Frontier Flight history →	MSY 20:14	PHL 00:10	25%	14%	6.6%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON