Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Love Field, leaving 06:30, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Phoenix on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 69% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 3017 Southwest Flight history →	MSY 14:40	PHX 15:55	30%	6%	0.7%	74%
AA 2191 American Flight history →	MSY 18:14	PHX 19:29	31%	10%	1.7%	67%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 2 h behind New Orleans). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	MSY 05:10 → DEN 06:55WN 2991	1h 35m Denver	DEN 08:30 → PHX 09:25WN 431	6h 15m	98%	89%
Southwest Details →	MSY 05:20 → DAL 06:45WN 2964	2h 05m Dallas	DAL 08:50 → PHX 09:20WN 4410	6h 00m	99%	86%
United Details →	MSY 05:15 → IAH 06:34UA 2744	3h 06m Houston	IAH 09:40 → PHX 10:34UA 1895	7h 19m	99%	85%
Southwest Details →	MSY 06:30 → DAL 07:55WN 3664	2h 30m Dallas	DAL 10:25 → PHX 10:55WN 1166	6h 25m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	MSY 05:20 → ATL 07:51DL 1547	3h 19m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → PHX 12:03DL 796	8h 43m	100%	83%
Southwest Details →	MSY 06:20 → LAS 07:55WN 2192	1h 45m Las Vegas	LAS 09:40 → PHX 11:00WN 2310	6h 40m	98%	83%
Southwest Details →	MSY 08:10 → AUS 09:35WN 2977	2h 10m Austin	AUS 11:45 → PHX 12:05WN 375	5h 55m	100%	82%
Delta Details →	MSY 08:03 → LAX 10:00DL 2085	3h 46m Los Angeles	LAX 13:46 → PHX 15:21DL 3894 · flown by SkyWest	9h 18m	99%	82%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	MSY 14:55 → LAX 16:50DL 1102	51m Los Angeles	LAX 17:41 → PHX 19:14DL 4077 · flown by SkyWest	6h 19m	72%	58%
Southwest Details →	MSY 17:15 → MDW 19:30WN 2875	1h 05m Chicago	MDW 20:35 → PHX 22:15WN 2863	7h 00m	74%	49%
Southwest Details →	MSY 12:20 → HOU 13:35WN 1642	50m Houston	HOU 14:25 → PHX 15:05WN 3304	4h 45m	69%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON