tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Love Field, leaving 05:20, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching San Diego on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 60% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 3018 Southwest Flight history → MSY 18:30 SAN 20:15 49% 10% 1.5% 43%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 2 h behind New Orleans). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → MSY 05:20 → DAL 06:45WN 2964 1h 05m Dallas DAL 07:50 → SAN 08:50WN 192 5h 30m 97% 84%
SouthwestDetails → MSY 05:10 → DEN 06:55WN 2991 1h 20m Denver DEN 08:15 → SAN 09:40WN 1699 6h 30m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → MSY 05:20 → ATL 07:51DL 1547 3h 59m Atlanta ATL 11:50 → SAN 13:08DL 540 9h 48m 100% 82%
SouthwestDetails → MSY 06:00 → AUS 07:30WN 2976 2h 35m Austin AUS 10:05 → SAN 10:55WN 1435 6h 55m 99% 81%
UnitedDetails → MSY 05:15 → IAH 06:34UA 2744 2h 56m Houston IAH 09:30 → SAN 10:51UA 2491 7h 36m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → MSY 06:20 → ATL 08:57DL 1534 1h 18m Atlanta ATL 10:15 → SAN 11:34DL 712 7h 14m 96% 79%
UnitedDetails → MSY 07:00 → IAH 08:19UA 2124 3h 41m Houston IAH 12:00 → SAN 13:21UA 2399 8h 21m 99% 79%
DeltaDetails → MSY 17:20 → LAX 19:18DL 2096 3h 27m Los Angeles LAX 22:45 → SAN 23:42DL 3746 · flown by SkyWest 8h 22m 98% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → MSY 19:04 → SFO 21:45UA 2194 57m San Francisco SFO 22:42 → SAN 00:31 +1UA 2142 7h 27m 74% 54%
AmericanDetails → MSY 18:14 → PHX 19:29AA 2191 51m Phoenix PHX 20:20 → SAN 21:34AA 559 5h 20m 60% 37%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON