tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 4951 at 15:05, with a 18% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 4951 Southwest Flight history → MSY 15:05 SAT 16:40 18% 6% 0.8% 41%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Antonio on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → MSY 05:20 → DAL 06:45WN 2964 3h 05m Dallas DAL 09:50 → SAT 10:55WN 2617 5h 35m 100% 90%
SouthwestDetails → MSY 05:30 → HOU 06:45WN 4547 2h 40m Houston HOU 09:25 → SAT 10:25WN 1432 4h 55m 98% 87%
UnitedDetails → MSY 05:15 → IAH 06:34UA 2744 3h 05m Houston IAH 09:39 → SAT 10:46UA 6201 · flown by Mesa 5h 31m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → MSY 05:20 → ATL 07:51DL 1547 1h 55m Atlanta ATL 09:46 → SAT 11:09DL 1121 5h 49m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → MSY 07:28 → ATL 10:00DL 2522 2h 15m Atlanta ATL 12:15 → SAT 13:38DL 1408 6h 10m 98% 84%
AmericanDetails → MSY 05:50 → DFW 07:40AA 468 3h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:40 → SAT 11:52AA 3778 · flown by Envoy 6h 02m 98% 84%
SouthwestDetails → MSY 10:15 → BNA 11:50WN 2407 2h 35m Nashville BNA 14:25 → SAT 16:45WN 4371 6h 30m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → MSY 09:13 → ATL 11:43DL 3128 2h 02m Atlanta ATL 13:45 → SAT 15:10DL 2009 5h 57m 98% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → MSY 14:07 → DCA 17:46AA 967 46m Washington DCA 18:32 → SAT 21:13AA 1947 7h 06m 64% 45%
AmericanDetails → MSY 18:01 → DFW 19:55AA 2194 53m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:48 → SAT 22:00AA 1406 3h 59m 66% 42%
AmericanDetails → MSY 17:27 → ORD 20:29AA 2198 50m Chicago ORD 21:19 → SAT 00:10 +1AA 431 6h 43m 60% 41%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON